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2012 WORLD SERIES PREVIEW

CATCHERS AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB OSBP
David Ross – HOL .314 .351 .543 50 175 26 55 13 0 9 26 0 64.5
Yadier Molina – SAC .261 .295 .402 126 463 47 121 29 0 12 45 4 70.8

Across the board during the 2012 MWBL season Ross is the better catcher. He leads Molina in average, on base percentage, and slugging. Molina had more homers, but he also had close to 300 more at bats.  Molina did show more speed than Ross. Defensively these guys are about the same though the running game figures to favor both offenses. Advantage Hollywood

FIRST BASEMEN AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
Carlos Pena – HOL .228 .355 .490 126 486 83 111 23 1 34 85 2
Albert Pujols – SAC .296 .372 .561 145 537 93 159 25 0 39 95 15

Pujols was tied for 5th in the MWBL for home runs and Pena was tied for 9th. Beyond that statistical category Pujols dominates Pena. Pujols also showed some speed with 15 swipes. When you add his power to his speed Pujols was 14th in the MWBL Power-Speed rating at 21.7. Pujols had a Runs Contributed of 49.5 compared to 30.6 for Pena.  There’s also more chance of feast or famine with Pena as he had 142 punch outs. Pena is slightly better defensively. Advantage Sacramento

SECOND BASEMEN AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
Ian Kinsler – HOL .235 .300 .440 152 587 92 138 28 1 30 90 26
Robinson Cano – SAC .304 .359 .519 160 616 98 187 46 6 25 100 3

Power-Speed wise Kinsler was 7th best in the MWBL at 27.9, but overall Cano was the better second baseman.  Cano leads in average, on base percentage, and slugging.  Cano was also tied for 6th in the MWBL with 46 doubles. Kinsler has not been thrown out attempting to steal.  Both are good defenders with a slight edge to Cano. Advantage Sacramento

SHORTSTOPS AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
Starlin Castro – HOL .275 .313 .390 155 603 77 166 32 5 9 82 18
Jimmy Rollins – SAC .231 .275 .354 134 441 48 102 15 3 11 34 22

Castro is slightly better than Rollins – though Rollins may only be the starting SS in Hollywood’s park where the DH rule will be in effect.  Offensively Rollins had more power and speed compared to Castro, who was better in average, on base percentage, and slugging.  The veteran Rollins was the better defender. Advantage Hollywood

THIRD BASEMEN AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
Emilio Bonifacio – HOL .291 .346 .379 134 546 71 159 15 9 5 46 49
Kevin Youkilis – SAC .251 .356 .439 118 415 60 104 27 0 17 44 4

The versatile Bonifacio is a little better than Youkilis thanks in large part to batting average and stolen bases. Youkilis is better in slugging tripling in homer output and nearly having twice as many doubles.  Both players know how to get on base, but both are also prone to striking out.  Youkilis is by far the better hot corner man defensively. Advantage Hollywood

OUTFIELDERS AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
Jay Bruce – HOL .224 .289 .398 155 611 73 137 21 2 27 87 1
Alex Gordon – HOL .294 .372 .489 153 599 88 176 52 7 17 92 11
Drew Stubbs – HOL .223 .293 .347 145 539 79 120 21 2 14 58 46
Ben Francisco – HOL .251 .354 .381 66 231 42 58 6 0 8 24 4
Torii Hunter – SAC .199 .278 .349 155 547 66 109 19 3 19 67 1
Josh Willingham – SAC .244 .328 .494 135 484 67 118 34 0 29 77 4
Daniel Murphy – SAC .326 .370 .476 100 313 42 102 20 0 9 29 0
Nyjer Morgan – SAC .311 .354 .427 114 354 58 110 19 5 4 23 18

Sacramento’s outfielders lead in average, on base percentage, and slugging. Although Hollywood did slightly average more doubles and home runs among their 4 players. Thanks to Stubbs Hollywood also lead in stolen bases. Unfortunately the trio of Bruce, Gordon, and Stubbs combined for 514 strikeouts for Hollywood. Both teams were near the bottom for outfield assists. Hollywood had 42 while Sacramento had 29. Advantage Sacramento

PRIMARY DH AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
Jason Kubel – HOL .264 .327 .362 88 318 38 84 19 0 4 27 0
J.J. Hardy – SAC .268 .330 .530 138 451 60 121 26 1 30 88 0

The two DH’s are close in average and on base percentage, but Hardy destroys Kubel in slugging and he out homers Kubel 30 to 4. Hardy would also help Sacramento if he started at short. Don’t expect either DH to be a base running threat although Hardy can leg out a triple. Advantage Sacramento

HOL  STARTERS W-L ERA GS CG SHO QS IP H R ER HR SO/9 BB/9
Clayton Kershaw L 22-7 1.71 34 12 5 31 268.2 126 57 51 18 9.4 2.1
Jered Weaver R 26-4 1.87 34 7 3 23 245.1 126 66 51 23 7.6 2.0
David Price L 18-8 2.42 33 6 3 22 252.2 193 75 68 22 9.5 1.8
SAC  STARTERS W-L ERA GS CG SHO QS IP H R ER HR SO/9 BB/9
Cliff Lee L 21-12 2.43 38 2 2 27 248.0 152 69 67 18 9.2 2.1
Erik Bedard L 5-4 2.90 19 0 0 13 114.2 82 38 37 12 9.7 3.5
Justin Verlander R 20-8 1.63 40 0 0 32 270.1 119 58 49 19 9.9 1.7

The two rotations are pretty evenly matched. Hollywood has the better ERA and BB/9 while Sacramento has the better SO/9 rate. The big surprise here is 28 game winner for Sacramento Colby Lewis being left out of the rotation, but he could be a factor out of the pen, where he was 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings. Advantage Hollywood

HOL  RELIEVERS W-L-SV BS ERA HLD G GF IP H R ER HR SO/9 BB/9
Heath Bell R 2-3-24 6 3.00 6 49 36 42.0 28 14 14 5 7.5 4.1
Steve Cishek R 2-1-0 3 0.77 17 46 12 46.2 33 7 4 0 6.9 4.8
Henry Rodriguez R 3-0-2 1 1.23 12 47 21 51.1 34 7 3 3 9.1 2.3
JavierA Lopez L 2-1-1 0 2.06 7 42 11 39.1 19 11 9 1 8.0 6.4
SAC  RELIEVERS W-L-SV BS ERA HLD G GF IP H R ER HR SO/9 BB/9
Mariano Rivera R 4-4-31 1 0.81 2 67 54 67.0 26 8 6 3 8.6 1.2
Francisco Rodriguez R 4-1-2 1 1.32 15 62 13 47.2 21 8 7 4 11.3 2.5
Eric O’Flaherty L 0-0-2 1 1.40 7 30 7 25.2 10 4 4 1 7.7 2.1
Darren Oliver L 3-1-3 0 1.49 16 63 23 48.1 23 8 8 1 4.8 4.1

It’s hard to believe Rivera lost 4 games with an ERA of 0.81. Both of the pens top 4 relievers combine for a sub 2.00 ERA, but Sacramento has a combined sub 1.30 ERA.  Sacramento has a slightly better SO/9 rate and displays better control. Advantage Sacramento

Overall Sacramento was better than Hollywood defensively .988 to .982, team ERA 2.15 to 2.72, and team hitting .260 to .251. Hollywood had more team double plays at 114 to 80 and Sacramento grounded into 16 more double plays than Hollywood. Sacramento held opposing batters to .178 hitting during the 2012 MWBL season while Hollywood limited their opponents to .196. Sacramento hit 212 team home runs compared to 180 for Hollywood. Hollywood hitters also struck 175 more times than Sacramento.

In summary it looks like Sacramento will take the 2012 MWBL World Series in 6 games. Hollywood has a chance for an upset if they can avoid striking out and avoid facing Sacramento’s bullpen. This series should be dominated by the pitchers.

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