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2019 MID-SEASON EXPECTED WINS

Thanks to Casey Hoch of Fremont for putting this together.

Team Wins Losses Runs For R Allowed Exp W % Exp Win Exp Loss Difference exp
MCM 54 30 385 255 .645 54 30 0 1.447
DAL 46 38 371 350 .521 44 40 2 1.447
MAN 45 39 404 386 .516 43 41 2 1.447
FRE 37 47 424 430 .495 42 42 -5 1.447
SWD 25 58 305 460 .356 30 53 -5 1.447
Team Wins Losses Runs For R Allowed Exp W % Exp Win Exp Loss Difference exp
DET 52 32 400 335 .564 47 37 5 1.447
YSS 45 39 433 399 .530 44 40 1 1.447
CHI 43 41 384 355 .528 44 40 -1 1.447
TIJ 23 61 281 550 .275 23 61 0 1.447
Team Wins Losses Runs For R Allowed Exp W % Exp Win Exp Loss Difference exp
SBL 52 31 462 321 .629 52 31 0 1.447
MSS 49 35 464 373 .578 49 35 0 1.447
HOL 48 36 428 349 .573 48 36 0 1.447
VIR 37 47 362 419 .447 38 46 -1 1.447
CCC 31 53 312 433 .384 32 52 -1 1.447
Team Wins Losses Runs For R Allowed Exp W % Exp Win Exp Loss Difference exp
PIT 45 39 344 285 .584 49 35 -4 1.806
BET 42 41 411 347 .576 48 35 -6 1.806
JNE 42 42 300 297 .505 42 42 0 1.806
CRK 30 54 289 409 .348 29 55 1 1.806
HIW 26 57 250 378 .322 27 56 -1 1.806
Team Wins Losses Runs For R Allowed Exp W % Exp Win Exp Loss Difference exp
TEM 67 17 401 191 .792 67 17 0 1.806
COL 53 31 393 302 .617 52 32 1 1.806
SEL 36 48 340 450 .376 32 52 4 1.806
VAL 33 50 315 385 .410 34 49 -1 1.806
Team Wins Losses Runs For R Allowed Exp W % Exp Win Exp Loss Difference exp
SAC 59 25 386 249 .688 58 26 1 1.806
LBD 44 40 340 306 .547 46 38 -2 1.806
TCP 43 41 346 362 .480 40 44 3 1.806
POR 40 42 334 297 .553 45 37 -5 1.806
RRG 25 58 240 431 .258 21 62 4 1.806
                   
These were calculated using the Pythagorean/Pythagenport Expected Wins Calculation.  
Expected Winning Percentage= (Runs Scored^exp)/((Runs Scored^exp)+(Runs Allowed^exp)),
where the exponent (exp) is 0.45+1.5*log(League-Wide Runs Per Game).     
The AL scored ~15% more runs than the NL.          
                   
    Total Runs 10104            
    AL Runs 5415            
    NL Runs 4689            

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