2017 MID-SEASON EXPECTED WINS
Thanks to Casey Hoch for putting this together.
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
MCM | 51 | 33 | 412 | 317 | .618 | 52 | 32 | -1 | 1.837 |
MAN | 49 | 35 | 390 | 293 | .628 | 53 | 31 | -4 | 1.837 |
DAL | 31 | 53 | 333 | 500 | .322 | 27 | 57 | 4 | 1.837 |
FRE | 25 | 59 | 309 | 461 | .324 | 27 | 57 | -2 | 1.837 |
SWD | 21 | 63 | 283 | 556 | .224 | 19 | 65 | 2 | 1.837 |
CHI | 64 | 20 | 502 | 280 | .745 | 63 | 21 | 1 | 1.837 |
DET | 61 | 23 | 491 | 255 | .769 | 65 | 19 | -4 | 1.837 |
TIJ | 50 | 34 | 384 | 297 | .616 | 52 | 32 | -2 | 1.837 |
YSS | 41 | 43 | 398 | 382 | .519 | 44 | 40 | -3 | 1.837 |
HOL | 57 | 27 | 414 | 274 | .681 | 57 | 27 | 0 | 1.837 |
MSS | 37 | 47 | 376 | 394 | .479 | 40 | 44 | -3 | 1.837 |
VIR | 36 | 48 | 377 | 424 | .446 | 37 | 47 | -1 | 1.837 |
SBL | 35 | 49 | 363 | 458 | .395 | 33 | 51 | 2 | 1.837 |
CCC | 30 | 54 | 345 | 486 | .348 | 29 | 55 | 1 | 1.837 |
Team | Wins | Losses | Runs For | R Allowed | Exp W % | Exp Win | Exp Loss | Difference | exp |
BET | 57 | 27 | 378 | 284 | .628 | 53 | 31 | 4 | 1.837 |
PIT | 46 | 38 | 343 | 293 | .572 | 48 | 36 | -2 | 1.837 |
WCB | 46 | 38 | 360 | 362 | .497 | 42 | 42 | 4 | 1.837 |
CRK | 36 | 48 | 339 | 322 | .524 | 44 | 40 | -8 | 1.837 |
JNE | 34 | 50 | 281 | 338 | .416 | 35 | 49 | -1 | 1.837 |
TEM | 69 | 15 | 464 | 229 | .785 | 66 | 18 | 3 | 1.837 |
COL | 52 | 32 | 379 | 251 | .681 | 57 | 27 | -5 | 1.837 |
VAL | 30 | 54 | 299 | 377 | .395 | 33 | 51 | -3 | 1.837 |
SEL | 22 | 62 | 219 | 400 | .249 | 21 | 63 | 1 | 1.837 |
SAC | 61 | 23 | 383 | 197 | .772 | 65 | 19 | -4 | 1.837 |
TCP | 53 | 31 | 359 | 273 | .623 | 52 | 32 | 1 | 1.837 |
LBD | 32 | 52 | 252 | 378 | .322 | 27 | 57 | 5 | 1.837 |
GHG | 29 | 55 | 274 | 362 | .375 | 31 | 53 | -2 | 1.837 |
RRG | 21 | 63 | 180 | 444 | .160 | 13 | 71 | 8 | 1.837 |
These were calculated using the Pythagorean/Pythagenport Expected Wins Calculation.
Expected Winning Percentage= (Runs Scored^exp)/((Runs Scored^exp)+(Runs Allowed^exp)),
where the exponent (exp) is 0.45+1.5*log(League-Wide Runs Per Game), which in our case was 1.837 .